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Workshop on Statistics in Volcanology

University of Bristol, 22 to 26 March 2004

Scientific Programme | Workshop Arrangements | Report | Home page

Scientific Programme

Timetable now available: click here

Keynote Abstracts | Non-Keynote Abstracts | Poster Abstracts

Keynote Speakers
Dr Willy Aspinall, Aspinall & Associates, UK.
Dr Stuart Coles, Department of Statistics, University of Padua, Italy.
Professor Chuck Connor, Department of Geology, University of Southern Florida, USA.
Professor Peter Green, Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol, UK.
Professor Herbert Huppert, Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge UK.
Dr Olivier Jacquet, COLENCO Power Engineering, Baden, Switzerland.
Dr Heidy Mader, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK.
Dr Oleg Melnik, Institute of Mechanics, Moscow State University, Russia.
Professor Guy Nason, Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol, UK.
Dr Juergen Neuberg, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, UK.
Professor Chris Newhall, Volcano Disaster Assistance Team, US Geological Survey.
Dr Leonard Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, UK.
Professor Steve Sparks, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK.
Dr Gordon Woo, Aspinall & Associates, UK.
Professor Andy Woods, BP Institute, University of Cambridge, UK.
Professor Peter Young, Centre for Research on Environmental Systems and Statistics, Lancaster University, UK.

Talks will take place in Lecture Theatre SM1 on the first floor of the Mathematics Department. Poster sessions will be held in SM3 (a) and SM4 (b). Coffee will be served in the foyers outside the lecture theatres and lunch is available in the university refectory.

Monday (Chair: Mader)
08:45-09:30 Registration - outside Lecture Theatre SM1
09:30-09:45 Welcome
09:45-10:45 Sparks (Keynote)
Volcanic processes in the context of statistical analysis
10:45-11:15 Coffee
11:15-12:15 Huppert (Keynote)
The fluid mechanics and physics of volcanic eruptions
12:15-13:45 Lunch
(Chair: Woods)
13:45-14:45 Aspinall (Keynote)
Probabilistic hazard and risk assessment for volcanic eruptions, and the use of expert opinion
14:45-15:45 Woo (Keynote)
The mathematics of natural catastrophes
15:45-16:15 Tea
16:15-17:15 Green (Keynote)
Modern statistical modelling in applied science
17:15-18:00 Questions and Plenary Discussion
18:00-19:00 Drinks Reception (Royal Fort House)

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Tuesday (Chair: Sparks)
09.00-09.45 Mader (Keynote)
Physical processes in conduit flow
09.45-10.30 Melnik (Keynote)
Transient models of volcanic eruptions
10:30-11:00 Coffee
11:00-11.30 Gottsmann
Inversion of gravity change and deformation time series: Probing sub-surface dynamics at restless calderas for hazard assessment
11.30-12.00 Esposti Ongaro
Coupled Large Eddy Simulation and Lagrangian models for the description of the multiphase flow dynamics of volcanic columns
12:00-12:30 Hale
Modelling the growth dynamics and stability of the lava dome on Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat
12:30-14:00 Lunch
(Chair: Huppert)
14:00-15:00 Woods (Keynote)
Dynamics of dilute ash flows
15:00-15:30 Bonadonna
Probabilistic modelling of tephra dispersion: hazard assessment of a multi-phase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand
15:30-16:00 Plenary Questions and Discussion
16:00-17:30 Poster Session 1 + Tea

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Wednesday (Chair: Young)
09:00-10:00 Smith (Keynote)
Coping without chaos: the role of model inadequacy in geophysical simulation models
10:00-10:30 Hellweg
A warning bell? Tornillo events at Galeras Volcano, Colombia
10:30-11:00 Coffee
11:00-12:00 Nason (Keynote)
Locally stationary time series
12:00-12:30 Jupp
A statistical model for the timing of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions influenced by periodic processes
12:30-14:00 Lunch
(Chair: Connor)
14:00-15:00 Jaquet (Keynote)
Stochastic forecasting: Precursor identification and scenario simulation using geostatistical methods
15:00-15:30 Marzocchi
Quantifying the probabilities of eruptive events: an example from Mount Vesuvius
15:30-16:00 Plenary Questions and Discussion
16:00-16:30 Tea
19:00-23:00 Workshop Dinner (Bristol Museums and Art Gallery)

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Thursday (Chair: Green)
09:00-10:00 Young (Keynote)
Data-based mechanistic modelling and signal processing
10:00-10:30 Matthews
Rainfall triggered dome collapses on Montserrat
10:30-11:00 Coffee
11:00-12:00 Neuberg (Keynote)
Physical processes in magma and their signature in seismic records
12:00-12:30 Chastin
Statistical analysis of seismic event rate as precursory signal to volcanic eruptions
12:30-14:00 Lunch
(Chair: Coles)
14:00-14:30 Newhall (Keynote)
WOVOdat, a new tool for forecasting volcanic eruptions
14:30-15:00 Kilburn
Precursors to eruptions after extended repose intervals
15:00-16:00 Plenary Questions and Discussion
16:00-17:30 Poster Session 2 + Tea

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Friday (Chair: Neuberg)
09:00-10:00 Connor (Keynote)
Time and space in volcanology
10:00-10:30 Wadge
Temporal and spatial analysis of the eruptions of Nyamuragira
10:30-11:00 Coffee
11:00:12:00 Coles (Keynote)
Extreme value theory and volcanoes
12:00-12:30 Palacios
Statistical analysis of the magnitude in volcanic tectonic events and its physical interpretation
12:30-13:00 Plenary Questions and Discussion - Close of Business
13:00-14:00 Lunch

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The general theme of the workshop is the promotion and dissemination of contemporary statistical thinking and understanding as an aid to tackling complex problems arising in volcanology. Areas of common interest between the statistical and volcanological communities include:
  • Numerical modelling of complex multiphase flows.
  • Analysis of large data streams
  • Statistics of spatial and time series data
  • Pattern recognition.
  • Analysis of uncertainties and probabilistic risk assessment.
  • Relating spatial and temporal data to physical processes.
  • Evaluation of expert judgements of field data for forecasting, hazard evaluation and risk assessment.
A key objective of the workshop is for researchers and students in the volcanological and statistical disciplines to share knowledge and common interests and to develop future collaborations.

Format of Workshop
The workshop is organised around keynote lectures from leading experts on particular themes covering state-of-the-art aspects of volcanology and statistics. These themes will include:
  • Risk analysis of volcanic eruptions and assessment of expert opinion.
  • Modelling of volcanic flow.
  • Volcanic eruption precursors
  • Modelling of extreme events.
  • Wavelet techniques.
  • Pattern recognition and spatial statistics.
  • Computational techniques for complex risk models.
The keynote lectures will be interspersed with plenary discussion sessions and focus-group sessions. Participants are also encouraged to contribute to a poster session whose aim will be to enable detailed discussion of contributors' own research problems, expertise and experience.
Environmental Mathematics and Statistics Workshops and Training Courses
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