Entrance hall of the ICMS Workshop

Stochastic models of the spread of disease and information on networks

Jul 04, 2016 - Jul 08, 2016

ICMS, 15 South College Street

Organisers

Name Institution
Durrett, Rick Duke University
House, Thomas University of Manchester
Luczak, Malwina Queen Mary University of London
Trapman, Pieter Stockholm University

 

Despite major advances due to vaccination, hygiene and pharmaceutical interventions, infectious diseases continue to pose a serious threat to public health. Notable examples of epidemics during recent decades include the HIV epidemic, the SARS outbreak in 2002-04, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and recently Ebola. It is of utmost importance to understand how infectious diseases spread through populations, how the population structure influences the spread, and what disease control measures are effective.

This workshop will bring together people actively involved in research on the spread of disease and information in populations. The main themes of the meeting will be:

  • spread of epidemics on dynamic networks;

  • near-critical epidemics;

  • persistence of epidemics;

  • spread of information and opinions;

  • connecting mathematical models to real-life epidemics through data fitting.

 

Mathematically, models of disease and information spread have a wealth of interesting features, and understanding them better will advance e.g. Markov chain theory and random graph theory. Currently health systems in developed nations are struggling under pressure caused by ageing populations and resource limitations. It is therefore imperative to reduce the economic and human burden of infectious diseases as efficiently as possible, and modelling can play a key role in this optimisation.



The meeting will bring together experts on the spread of epidemics with researchers who study the spread of information and technologies through social networks. The participants will be drawn from several different communities: probabilists, mathematical biologists, epidemiologists, statisticians, and computer scientists. As a result, it is expected that there is increased awareness, understanding and communication between the various communities mentioned above, leading to more dialogue and new collaborations. Over time, it is hoped that deeper understanding of existing and new models of disease and information spread will ensue. This, in turn, will eventually have impact on important real-life problems. The UK community will benefit from the opportunity provided by the workshop to interact with international experts; and this will further stimulate further growth in the UK in a rapidly developing field where it is already a recognised international leader.

Arrangements

This workshop will commence with Registration from 08.30-09.20 on Monday morning and finish with a sandwich lunch at 12 noon on Friday.   

 

Participation
INVITED DELEGATES
Invited delegates were sent an emailed invitation from ICMS, on behalf of the Scientific Organisers, on 24 March 2016.

PUBLIC APPLICATIONS
A few places at the workshop have been allocated for public applicants.  Please apply via this PUBLIC APPLICATION FORM.   (Do NOT use this form if you are an invited Speaker as you will already have received an invitation with a personalised link to your own registration form).   Public applicants are expected to arrange their own accommodation and travel. 

There may be some limited financial support for Public Applicants.   If you require this, please include details and amounts on the application form.  

The 70 GBP registration fee will still apply for Public Applicants. 

 

Registration Fee
A registration fee of 70.00 GBP is payable by all participants (excluding Organisers).  Payment can be made on arrival at ICMS - at Registration we will accept cash, credit/debit card payments and sterling cheques (payable to “Heriot-Watt University”).  Unfortunately, we do not yet have an on-line payment system at ICMS.   If you wish to pay by credit/debit card, please complete this credit/debit card form and bring the completed form to Registration.   

 

Venue and Talks
The workshop will be held at 15 South College Street, Edinburgh.  You may also find this map useful for the workshop.  All lectures will be held in the Newhaven Lecture Theatre.    The Lecture Theatre is equipped with a data projector, computer, visualiser (the new generation of overhead projectors) and two blackboards.  The projector and one board may be used simultaneously.  It is best to bring your presentation on a memory stick to use in our ICMS computer.   Alternatively, it is possible for you to use your own laptop with our data-projector, but please be aware that you may have to alter your laptop resolutions/settings. 

 

UK Visas
If you are travelling from overseas you may require an entry visa. A European visa does not guarantee entry to the UK. Please use this link to the UK Visas site to find out if you need a visa and if so how to apply for one.

 

Travel
Information about travel to the UK and Edinburgh is available here.  Please note that it is your responsibility to have adequate travel insurance to cover medical and other emergencies that may occur on your trip.

A taxi directly from the airport will cost approximately 20.00 GBP to the city centre for a one-way journey. There is also a bus service direct from the airport to the city centre which will cost 4.00 single or 7.00 GBP return - the Airlink 100.  This is a frequent service (every 10 minutes during peak times) and will bring you close to Waverley Railway Station and the workshop venue. 

Lothian buses charge £1.60 for a single, £4.00 for a day ticket. Please note that the exact fare is required and no change is given.

If travelling by train, please note that Edinburgh has several railway stations; Waverley Railway Station being the main station and closest to the workshop venue at 15 South College Street. If you alight at Edinburgh Waverley, the meeting venue is an easy 10 minute walk over North and South Bridge.  The other railway stations are Haymarket and Edinburgh Park but please note that these stations are at the West End of the city centre.

 

Accommodation
ICMS will organise accommodation for invited participants.

 

Public Lecture
On Tuesday 5 July, 17.30-18.30, there will be a public lecture by Deirdre Hollingsworth.   Doors will open to the public at 17.00.  Seats have been reserved for all participants in the workshop so you are not required to book a seat. 

Details of the talk title and abstract are as follows:

Eliminating infectious diseases – are some easier than others?
Although only one infectious disease of humans has been eradicated (smallpox), there are global efforts to eliminate the suffering associated with a number of diseases around the world. These include diseases which used to be present in the more affluent parts of the world, but are now rarely seen – such as leprosy or intestinal worms -  as well as those which particularly affect tropical regions, such as river blindness and sleeping sickness. Part of the motivation for these elimination campaigns is that they have been eliminated from some areas of the globe and therefore should be possible to eliminate in other areas. Mathematical models of the spread of these diseases are informing control strategies and can help us understand when and why elimination and eradication can be particularly hard. Using simple examples of the insights from mathematical models you will be shown how we evaluate control strategies and assess whether elimination may be possible.

Catering
The workshop grant will cover refreshments throughout the event and lunch on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. There will be an informal wine reception on Monday, wine following the Public Lecture on the Tuesday and a workshop dinner on Wednesday 6 July, 19.00, at Blonde Restaurant, 75 St Leonard's Street, Edinburgh.

 

Wireless Access
Access to wifi via Eduroam is available throughout the building. If you are not registered with Eduroam you will be given instructions and a code for accessing the wireless network.  For those without laptops, there will also be a couple of computers available for you to check your emails.  

 

Programme

 A pdf of all the abstracts is available for download

Monday 4 July

08:30-09:20

Registration in the Chapterhouse, Level 1

09:20-09:30

Welcome

09:30-10:15

Frank Ball (University of Nottingham)
Inference for emerging epidemics on networks with household structure

10:15-10:45

Tea/Coffee in the Chapterhouse

10:45-11:30

Philip O'Neill (University of Nottingham)
Bayesian inference for epidemic models via likelihood approximation
pdf of presentation

11:30-12:15

Peter Neal (Lancaster University)
A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects

12:15-14:00

Lunch provided in the Chapterhouse

14:00-14:30

Rosalind Eggo (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
Epidemic size and the role of population immune history in influenza

14:30-15:00

Pierre-Andre Maugis (University College London)
Network analysis and non-parametric statistics

15:00-15:30

David Sirl (University of Nottingham)
Vaccine allocation in network epidemic models
pdf of presentation

15:30-16:00

Tea/Coffee in the Chapterhouse

16:00-16:45

Tom Britton (Stockholm University)
Inferring R_0 in emerging epidemics - the effect of common population structure is small
pdf of presentation

16:45-17:15

Viet Chi Tran (Université Lille 1)
Nonparametric adaptive estimation of order 1 Sobol indices in stochastic models, with an application to epidemiology

17:15-17:45

Mick Roberts (Massey University)
An epidemic model with noisy parameters

17:45-19.00

Informal wine reception in the Chapterhouse

 

Tuesday 5 July

09:00-09:45

Odo Diekmann (University of Utrecht)
The renewal equation for the Volz variable

09:45-10:15

KaYin Leung (University of Utrecht)
Dangerous connections: the spread of infectious diseases on dynamic networks
pdf of presentation

10:15-10:45

Tea/Coffee in the Chapterhouse

10:45-11:15

Joel Miller (Institute for Disease Modeling)
Modeling disease spread with birth, death, and concurrency

11:15-11:45

Elizabeth Buckingham-Jeffrey (University of Warwick)
Gaussian process approximations of the stochastic SIR model
pdf of presentation

11:45-12:15

TJ McKinley (University of Exeter )
Combining Gaussian processes and ABC for inference in complex infectious disease models: with application to HIV in Uganda

12:15-14:00

Lunch provided in the Chapterhouse

14:00-14:30

Nakul Chitnis (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute)
Modelling rabies elimination in an African city

14:30-15:00

Mirjam Kretzschmar (University Medical Centre Utrecht)
Use of network models for assessing the impact of interventions for chlamydia infections

15:00-15:30

Ian Hall (Public Health England)
Developing an emerging disease analysis toolbox

15:30-16:00

Iain Barrass (Public Health England)
Modelling to support a UK pandemic influenza exercise

16:00-16:30

Tea/Coffee in the Chapterhouse

17:00

Doors open to the public

17:30-18.30

Public Lecture by Deirdre Hollingsworth (University of Warwick)
Eliminating infectious diseases - are some easier than others?

18:30-19:30

Informal wine reception in the Chapterhouse

 

Wednesday 6 July

09:00-09:45

David Aldous (University of California, Berkeley)
A general SI epidemic and a framework for imperfectly observed networks
pdf of presentation

09:45-10:30

Damien Clancy (Heriot-Watt University)
Approximating the time to endemic fade-out
pdf of presentation

10:30-11:00

Tea/Coffee in the Chapterhouse

11:00-11:30

Graham Brightwell (London School of Economics)
The SIS logistic epidemic

11:30-12:00

Ayalvaid Ganesh (University of Bristol)
Optimal control of a contact process

12:00-12:30

Fabio Lopes (Universidad de Chile)
Extinction time for the weaker of two competing SIS epidemics

12:30

Free afternoon

19:00

Workshop Dinner at Blonde Restaurant, 75 St Leonard's Street, Edinburgh

 

Thursday 7 July

09:00-09:30

Christel Kamp (Paul-Ehrlich-Institut)
Epidemic spread on weighted networks – spread the weight, spread the infection

09:30-10:00

Tobias Mueller (University of Utrecht)
A hyperbolic model of complex networks

10:00-10:30

Tatyana Turova (Lund University)
Random geometric graphs

10:30-11:00

Tea/Coffee in the Chapterhouse

11:00-11:30

Nicolas Rivera (King's College London)
The linear voting model

11:30-12:00

Sebastian Rosengren (Stockholms universitet)
A dynamic Erdős-Rényi graph model

12:00-14:00

Lunch provided in the Chapterhouse

14:00-15:30

Discussion

15:30-16:00

Tea/Coffee in the Chapterhouse

16:00-16:30

Eric Foxall (Arizona State University)
Dynamics of the naming game on the complete graph

16:30-17:00

Edward Hill (University of Warwick)
Spreading of healthy mood in adolescent friendship networks
pdf of presentation

17:00-17:30

Kieran Sharkey (University of Liverpool)
Defining prevalence and invasion probability for SIS dynamics on finite networks

 

Friday 8 July

09:00-09:45

Denis Mollison (Heriot-Watt University)
Challenges in representing spatial structure
pdf of presentation

09:45-10:15

Lorenzo Pellis (University of Warwick)
Systematic approximations to susceptible-infectious-susceptible disease dynamics on networks

10:15-10:45

Tea/Coffee in the Chapterhouse

10:45-11:15

Istvan Kiss (University of Sussex)
Generation and analysis of networks with a prescribed degree sequence and subgraph family: higher-order structure matters
pdf of presentation

11:15-11:45

Joshua Ross (University of Adelaide)
Characterising pandemic impact from data collected during first few hundred studies

11:45

Closing and discussion

12:00

A sandwich lunch will be available in the Chapterhouse

 

 A pdf of all the abstracts is available for download.

Presentations:

Presentation Details
Aldous, David
A general SI epidemic and a framework for imperfectly observed networks
View Abstract Down
Ball, Frank
Inference for emerging epidemics on networks with household structure
View Abstract Down
Barrass, Iain
Modelling to support a UK pandemic influenza exercise
View Abstract Down
Brightwell, Graham
The SIS logistic epidemic
View Abstract Down
Britton, Tom
Inferring R_0 in emerging epidemics - the effect of common population structure is small
View Abstract Down
Buckingham-Jeffery, Elizabeth
Gaussian process approximations of the stochastic SIR model
View Abstract Down
Chitnis, Nakul
Modelling rabies elimination in an African city
View Abstract Down
Clancy, Damian
Approximating the time to endemic fade-out
View Abstract Down
Diekmann, Odo
The renewal equation for the Volz variable
View Abstract Down
Eggo, Rosalind
Epidemic size and the role of population immune history in influenza
View Abstract Down
Foxall, Eric
Dynamics of the naming game on the complete graph
View Abstract Down
Ganesh, Ayalvadi
Optimal control of a contact process
View Abstract Down
Hall, Ian
Developing an emerging disease analysis toolbox
View Abstract Down
Hill, Edward
Spreading of healthy mood in adolescent friendship networks
View Abstract Down
Kamp, Christel
Epidemic spread on weighted networks – spread the weight, spread the infection
View Abstract Down
Kiss, Istvan
Generation and analysis of networks with a prescribed degree sequence and subgraph family: higher-order structure matters
View Abstract Down
Kretzschmar, Mirjam
Use of network models for assessing the impact of interventions for chlamydia infections
View Abstract Down
Leung, Ka Yin
Dangerous connections: the spread of infectious diseases on dynamic networks
View Abstract Down
Lopes, Fabio
Extinction time for the weaker of two competing SIS epidemics
View Abstract Down
Maugis, Pierre-Andre
Network analysis and non-parametric statistics
View Abstract Down
McKinley, TJ
Combining Gaussian processes and ABC for inference in complex infectious disease models: with application to HIV in Uganda
View Abstract Down
Miller, Joel
Modeling disease spread with birth, death, and concurrency
View Abstract Down
Mollison, Denis
Challenges in representing spatial structure
View Abstract Down
Mueller, Tobias
A hyperbolic model of complex networks
View Abstract Down
Neal, Peter
A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects
View Abstract Down
O'Neill, Philip
Bayesian inference for epidemic models via likelihood approximation
View Abstract Down
Pellis, Lorenzo
Systematic approximations to susceptible-infectious-susceptible disease dynamics on networks
View Abstract Down
Rivera, Nicolás
The linear voting model
View Abstract Down
Roberts, Mick
An epidemic model with noisy parameters
View Abstract Down
Rosengren, Sebastian
A dynamic Erdős-Rényi graph model
View Abstract Down
Ross, Joshua
Characterising pandemic impact from data collected during first few hundred studies
View Abstract Down
Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo
Inference in the early phase of an epidemic
View Abstract Down
Sharkey, Kieran
Defining prevalence and invasion probability for SIS dynamics on finite networks
View Abstract Down
Sirl, David
Vaccine allocation in network epidemic models
View Abstract Down
Tran, Viet Chi
Nonparametric adaptive estimation of order 1 Sobol indices in stochastic models, with an application to epidemiology
View Abstract Down
Turova Schmeling, Tatyana
Random geometric graphs
View Abstract Down

Participants

Name Institution
Aldous, David University of California, Berkeley
Ball, Frank University of Nottingham
Barrass, Iain Public Health England
Brightwell, Graham London School of Economics
Britton, Tom Stockholm University
Buckingham-Jeffery, Elizabeth University of Warwick
Catterall, Stephen Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland
Chitnis, Nakul Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
Clancy, Damian Heriot-Watt University
Diekmann, Odo University of Utrecht
Dyson, Louise University of Warwick
Eggo, Rosalind London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Foxall, Eric Arizona State University
Ganesh, Ayalvadi University of Bristol
Hall, Ian Public Health England
Hill, Edward University of Warwick
Hilton, Joseph University of Warwick
Hollingsworth, Deirdre University of Warwick
House, Thomas University of Manchester
Isham, Valerie University College London
Jones, Hannah Heriot-Watt University
Kamp, Christel Paul-Ehrlich-Institut
Kinyanjui, Timothy Muiruri University of Manchester
Kiss, Istvan University of Sussex
Klaise, Janis The University of Warwick
Kretzschmar, Mirjam University Medical Centre Utrecht
Lashari, Abid Ali Stockholm University
Leung, Ka Yin University of Utrecht
Lopes, Fabio Universidad de Chile
Luczak, Malwina Queen Mary University of London
Martin-Löf, Anders Stockholm University
Maugis, Pierre-Andre University College London
McKinley, TJ University of Exeter
Miller, Joel Institute for Disease Modeling
Mollison, Denis Heriot-Watt University
Mueller, Tobias University of Utrecht
Neal, Peter Lancaster University
O'Neill, Philip University of Nottingham
Pellis, Lorenzo University of Warwick
Rivera, Nicolás King's College London
Roberts, Mick Massey University
Rosengren, Sebastian Stockholms universitet
Ross, Joshua University of Adelaide
Sharkey, Kieran University of Liverpool
Sirl, David University of Nottingham
Tanner, Eleanor MIGSAA
Tran, Viet Chi Université Lille 1
Trapman, Pieter Stockholm University
Turova Schmeling, Tatyana Lund University
White, Andy Heriot-Watt University