Entrance hall of the ICMS

Tipping points: fundamentals and applications

Sep 09, 2013 - Sep 13, 2013

ICMS, 15 South College Street

Organisers

Name Institution
Gidea, Marian Yeshiva University
Sieber, Jan University of Exeter
Silber, Mary Northwestern University
Wieczorek, Sebastian University of Exeter

 

This workshop brings together mathematicians and statisticians, whose research expertise is relevant to investigating threshold behaviour in complex environmental systems, with the climate scientists and ecologists who exploit mathematical modelling in their research on tipping phenomena.

 

Arrangements

The workshop will begin with Registration at 09.00 on Monday 9 September and close at lunchtime on Friday 13 September.   There will be a meeting of some members of CliMathNet and MCRN on Friday afternoon until 17.00 at ICMS and on Saturday 09.00-16.00 at the Engine Shed; please contact Christ KRT Jones (ckrtj@email.unc.edu) for more details.

 

Participation
This workshop is now closed.  Participation was by invitation only.  

 

UK Visas
If you are travelling from overseas you may require an entry visa. A European visa does not guarantee entry to the UK. Please use this link to the UK Visas site to find out if you need a visa and if so how to apply for one.

 

Venue
The workshop will be held at 15 South College Street, Edinburgh.  You may also find this map useful for the workshop.  All lectures will be held in the Newhaven Lecture Theatre.  In addition, two blackboards have been installed.  The projector and one board may be used simultaneously.  

 

Wireless Access
The workshop venue, 15 South College Street, has wireless access throughout. On arrival at Registration you will be given instructions and a code for accessing the wireless network.  For those without laptops, there will also be a couple of computers available for you to check your emails.

 

Travel
Information about travel to the UK and Edinburgh is available here.

Please note that it is your responsibility to have adequate travel insurance to cover medical and other emergencies (volcanic ash disruptions) that may occur on your trip.

A taxi directly from the airport will cost approximately 20.00 to 25.00 GBP to the city centre for a one-way journey.     There is also a bus service direct from the airport to the city centre which will cost 3.50 single or 6.00 GBP return - the Airlink 100.  This is a frequent service (every 10 minutes during peak times) and will bring you close to Waverley Railway Station, only a short walk to the accommodation and the workshop venue (see map in 'Venue' section above). 

Lothian buses charge £1.50 for a single, £3.50 for a day ticket. Please note that the exact fare is required and no change is given.

If travelling by train, please note that Edinburgh has several railway stations - Waverley Railway Station being the main station and closest to the workshop venue at 15 South College Street. If you alight at Edinburgh Waverley, the workshop venue is an easy 10 minute walk over North and South Bridge. The second large railway station is called Haymarket and is at the West End of the city centre.    Please be aware that there is also an Edinburgh Park railway station but this is at the west side of the city some way from the city centre.  For ICMS, use Edinburgh Waverley.

 

Accommodation
Those who requested accommodation to be booked by ICMS will have received an email with all the accommodation details.  If you have not received this and were expecting accommodation to be arranged, please email audrey.brown (at) icms.org.uk

 

Poster Session
The Poster Session will take place on Monday 9 September, 17.30-19.00, in the Chapterhouse, Level 1, ICMS.   For further information about presenting your poster please click here

 

Public Lecture by Professor Chris Budd (University of Bath)
On Wednesday 11 September, 18.00-19.00, in the Newhaven Lecture Theatre at ICMS, Professor Chris Budd will give the following lecture.   Seats have been reserved for workshop participants so there is no need for participants to book.  Doors open at 17.30 to the public.

Why do things sometimes change so fast?  Tipping points in life and nature
It is a Chinese curse that you should 'live in interesting times'. These are times when things are changing quickly, and often not for the better. But why do we have both boring times when nothing much happens and interesting times with a lot of change.  In this talk I will look at why things can change quickly and why this matters. I will look at examples including power cuts, climate change and events from history. The lecture will, quite literally, upset the apple cart.

 

Catering
The workshop grants will provide refreshments during the breaks in the Programme, lunch on the first day, an informal wine reception on the Monday evening and a workshop dinner on Tuesday evening, 19.00 at the Magnum Restaurant, 1 Albany Street, Edinburgh.  

 

Regsistration Fee
A registration fee of 50.00 GBP is payable by all.  
Details about payment methods for this fee have been emailed to all participants.  

 

Programme

The workshop will close at lunchtime on Friday 13 September.  There will be a meeting of some members of CliMathNet and MCRN on Friday afternoon until 17.00 at ICMS and on Saturday 09.00-16.00 at the Engine Shed; please contact Chris KRT Jones (ckrtj@email.unc.edu) for more details.

Please continue to check the Programme as it may be subject to alteration prior to the workshop.

 

Monday 9 September 2013

09.00-09.50

Registration & coffee in the Atrium, Level 3

09.50-11.00

Welcome and introductions (co-ordinated by S Wieczorek and M Gidea)

11.00-11.30

Coffee/Tea in the Chapterhouse, Level 1

11.30-12.15

Chris Jones (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
Overview Talk 1
Who, or what, will tip the big climate models?

12.15-12.30

Questions/Discussion

12.30-14.00

Lunch provided in the Chapterhouse

14.00-14.45

Henk Dijkstra (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht)
Overview Talk 2
Complex networks: a useful tool to detect climate transitions?

14.45-15.00

Questions/Discussion

15.00-15.30

Peter Cox (University of Exeter)
Estimating climate system sensitivities from temporal variability

15.30-16.00

Coffee/Tea in the Chapterhouse

16.00-16.30

Valerio Lucarini (University of Hamburg)
On the use of Extreme Value Theory for detecting global stability thresholds in multi-stable systems: the case of transitional plane Couette flow

16.30-17.00

Raymond Pierrehumbert -via the web (University of Chicago)
Bifurcation and climate sensitivity

17.00-17.30

Questions/Discussion

17.30-19.00

Poster Session and Informal Wine Reception in Chapterhouse

 

Tuesday 10 September

09.00-09.45

Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich)
Overview Talk 3
Intermittent criticality in financial markets high frequency trading to large-scale bubbles and crashes

09.45-10.00

Questions/Discussion

10.00-10.30

Coffee/Tea in the Chapterhouse

10.30-11.15

Alan Hastings (University of California)
Overview Talk 4
Multiple stable points, tipping points, and warning signs in ecological systems

11.15-11.30

Questions/Discussion

11.30-12.00

Description of Afternoon Discussion Format (M L Zeeman and P Martin)

12.00-14.00

Lunch Break

14.00-14.30

J Marty Anderies (Arizona State University)
Exploring tipping points and planetary boundaries with a stylized earth system model

14.30-15.00

Anna Maria Cherubini (Università del Salento)
A study on early warning signals for desertification

15.00-15.30

Robert S MacKay (University of Warwick)
Tipping points and nudges in complex systems

15.30-16.00

Questions/Discussion

16.00-16.30

Coffee/Tea in the Chapterhouse

16.30-17.30

Discussion Groups (report to M L Zeeman and P Martin, who collect highlights)

17.30-18.30

Informal Collaboration Time and Discussion Groups

19.00

Workshop Dinner at the Magnum Restaurant, 1 Albany Street, Edinburgh

 

Wednesday 11 September

09.00-09.45

Rachel Kuske (University of British Columbia)
Overview Talk 5
Dynamical transitions in stochastic models

09.45-10.00

Questions/Discussion

10.00-10.30

Coffee/Tea in the Chapterhouse

10.30-11.00

Discussion Highlight Reports (M L Zeeman and P Martin)

11.00-11.45

Michael Goldstein (Durham University)
Overview Talk 6
Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators, with applications to tipping points

11.45-12.00

Questions/Discussion

12.00-13.30

Lunch Break

13.30-14.00

Cees G H Diks (University of Amsterdam)
Early warning signals for critical transitions in finance

14.00-14.30

Thai Son Doan (Imperial College London)
The dichotomy spectrum for random dynamical systems and pitchfork bifurcations with additive noise

14.30-15.00

Chris Budd (University of Bath)
Tipping points and power cuts

15.00-15.30

Coffee/Tea in the Chapterhouse

15.30-16.00

Peter Challenor (University of Exeter)
A statistical approach to the forecasting of tipping points

16.00-16.30

Boualem Khouider (University of Victoria)
A coarse-grained stochastic multi-type particle interacting model for tropical climate simulations

16.30-17.00

Questions/Discussion

17.30

Doors open to the Public

18.00-19.00

Public Lecture by Chris Budd (University of Bath)
Why do things sometimes change so fast? Tipping Points in life and nature

 

Thursday 12 September

09.00-09.30

Barbara Gentz (University of Bielefeld)
Noise-induced passage through an unstable periodic orbit

09.30-10.00

Peter Ashwin (University of Exeter)
Tipping points and bifurcations – some examples and questions

10.00-10.30

Coffee/Tea in the Chapterhouse

10.30-11.00

Jens Rademacher (University of Bremen)
To tip or not to tip: billiard in stability regions of patterns

11.00-11.30

Peter Ditlevsen (University of Copenhagen)
Predictability, waiting times and tipping points in the climate

11.30-12.00

Questions/Discussion

12.00-14.00

Lunch Break

14.00-14.30

Claudie Beaulieu (University of Southampton)
Early warning signals for critical transitions: sense, sensitivity and specificity

14.30-15.00

Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter)
Predicting critical transitions from time series using non-stationary modelling

15.00-15.30

Christian Kuehn (TU Vienna)
Some new frontiers in mathematical tipping point theory

15.30-16.00

Questions/Discussion

16.00-16.30

Coffee/Tea in the Chapterhouse

16.30-17.30

Discussion Groups (report to J Sieber and A Doelman, who collect highlights)

17.30-18.30

Informal Collaboration Time and Discussion Groups

 

Friday 13 September

09.00-09.45

Discussion Highlight Reports (J Sieber and A Doelman)

09.45-10.00

Discussion of Goals for Identifying Future Research Prospects (C Jones, M Silber and S Wieczorek)

10.00-10.30

Coffee/Tea in the Chapterhouse

10.30-11.30

Discussion/Planning Groups (report to C Jones, M Silber and S Wieczorek)

11.30-12.30

Reports from Planning Groups / Close of Meeting

 

Presentations:

Presentation Details
Anderies, J Marty
Exploring tipping points and planetary boundaries with a stylized earth system model
View Abstract Down
Ashwin, Peter
Tipping points and bifurcations – some examples and questions
View Abstract Down
Barry, Anna
POSTER: Dynamics of a singularly perturbed piecewise-smooth conceptual climate model
Beaulieu, Claudie
Early warning signals for critical transitions: sense, sensitivity and specificity
View Abstract Down
Berwald, Jesse
POSTER: Detection of regime shifts via topological persistence
Boulton, Chris
POSTER: Early warning signals of simulated amazon rainforest dieback
Budd, Chris
Tipping points and power cuts
View Abstract Down
Caiado, Camila
POSTER: Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators, with applications to tipping points
Challenor, Peter
A statistical approach to the forecasting of tipping points
View Abstract Down
Cherubini, Anna Maria
A study on early warning signals for desertification
View Abstract Down
Cox, Peter
Estimating climate system sensitivities from temporal variability
View Abstract Down
Dijkstra, Henk
Complex networks: a useful tool to detect climate transitions?
View Abstract Down
Diks, Cees G H
Early warning signals for critical transitions in finance
View Abstract Down
Ditlevsen, Peter
Predictability, waiting times and tipping points in the climate
View Abstract Down
Doan, Thai Son
The dichotomy spectrum for random dynamical systems and pitchfork bifurcations with additive noise
View Abstract Down
Ermakov, Ilya
POSTER: Emulation of carbon cycle dynamics: exploring multidimensional input space
Gentz, Barbara
Noise-induced passage through an unstable periodic orbit
View Abstract Down
Goldstein, Michael
Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators, with applications to tipping points
View Abstract Down
Gowda, Karna
POSTER: Transitions between patterned states in vegetation models
Hastings, Alan
Multiple stable points, tipping points, and warning signs in ecological systems
View Abstract Down
Hill, Kaitlin
POSTER: An Arctic sea ice model: analysis in the discontinuous albedo limit
Hobbs, Clare
POSTER: Rate-induced tipping
Iams, Sarah
POSTER: Mosquito flight stability
Jones, Chris
Who, or what, will tip the big climate models?
View Abstract Down
Khouider, Boualem
A coarse-grained stochastic multi-type particle interacting model for tropical climate simulations
View Abstract Down
Kiseleva, Tatiana
POSTER: Small noise asymptotics, path-dependence and thresholds in presence of tipping points
Kühn, Christian
Some new frontiers in mathematical tipping point theory
View Abstract Down
Kuske, Rachel
Dynamical transitions in stochastic models
View Abstract Down
Kwasniok, Frank
Predicting critical transitions from time series using non-stationary modelling
View Abstract Down
Lucarini, Valerio
On the use of Extreme Value Theory for detecting global stability thresholds in multi-stable systems: the case of transitional plane Couette flow
View Abstract Down
MacKay, Robert S
Tipping points and nudges in complex systems
View Abstract Down
Pierrehumbert, Raymond
Bifurcation and climate sensitivity
View Abstract Down
Plotkin, David
POSTER: Characterizing the Kuroshio: a random walk to bimodality
Rademacher, Jens
To tip or not to tip: billiard in stability regions of patterns
View Abstract Down
Ritchie, Paul
POSTER: Escape rates for tipping
Roberts, Andrew
POSTER: Can a conceptual climate model exhibit MMOs?
Schnabel, Michael
POSTER: Inferring the topology of interaction networks from correlations using shortest path trees
Siero, Eric
POSTER: Dynamics of vegetation patterns under slowly varying conditions
Sornette, Didier
Intermittent criticality in financial markets high frequency trading to large-scale bubbles and crashes
View Abstract Down
Sudakov, Ivan
POSTER: Geometry of arctic melt ponds: from circles to fractals
Thomas, Zoe
POSTER: Early warnings of abrupt transitions in the east asian summer monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle
Viebahn, Jan
POSTER: Critical transition analysis of the wind-driven ocean circulation - a new network approach
Zhu, Jielin
POSTER: Asymptotic analysis on tipping points problem

Participants

Name Institution
Anderies, J Marty Arizona State University
Ashwin, Peter University of Exeter
Barry, Anna University of Minnesota
Beaulieu, Claudie University of Southampton
Berwald, Jesse University of Minnesota
Bloch-Johnson, Jonah University of Chicago
Boulton, Chris University of Exeter
Budd, Chris University of Bath
Caiado, Camila Durham University
Challenor, Peter University of Exeter
Cherubini, Anna Maria Università del Salento
Cox, Peter University of Exeter
Dijkstra, Henk Utrecht University
Diks, Cees G H University of Amsterdam
Ditlevsen, Peter University of Copenhagen
Doan, Thai Son Imperial College London
Doelman, Arjen Leiden University
Ermakov, Ilya Université catholique de Louvain
Gentz, Barbara University of Bielefeld
Gidea, Marian Yeshiva University
Goldstein, Michael Durham University
Gowda, Karna Northwestern University
Hastings, Alan University of California
Hill, Kaitlin Northwestern University
Hobbs, Clare University of Exeter
Iams, Sarah Cornell University
Jones, Chris University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Kaempfe, Diana University of Bielefeld
Khouider, Boualem University of Victoria
Kiseleva, Tatiana Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Kühn, Christian TU Vienna
Kuske, Rachel University of British Columbia
Kwasniok, Frank University of Exeter
Lucarini, Valerio University of Hamburg
MacKay, Robert S University of Warwick
Malavolta, Giuseppe Imperial College London
Martin, Pamela Indiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis
Pierrehumbert, Raymond University of Chicago
Plotkin, David University of Chicago
Rademacher, Jens University of Bremen
Rasmussen, Martin Imperial College London
Ritchie, Paul University of Exeter
Roberts, Andrew University of North Carolina
Schnabel, Michael Northwestern University
Sieber, Jan University of Exeter
Siero, Eric Leiden University
Silber, Mary Northwestern University
Sornette, Didier ETH Zurich
Sudakov, Ivan University of Utah
Thomas, Zoe University of Exeter
Viebahn, Jan IMAU, Utrecht University
Wieczorek, Sebastian University of Exeter
Zeeman, Mary Lou Bowdoin College
Zhu, Jielin University of British Columbia