Scientific Organisers
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Peter Ashwin , University of Exeter
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Niklas Boers , Technische Universität München
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Anna von der Heydt , Utrecht University
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Valerio Lucarini , University of Leicester
About:
This workshop will be part of the ICMS Mathematics for Humanity initiative. The workshop will provide a forum for the development of mathematical thinking applied to climate tipping points and their possible impacts. We will invite a variety of experts across the Mathematical Sciences research spectrum to deliver an assessment of the mechanisms and risks of tipping events in the Earth’s climate and ecosystems under anthropogenic forcing scenarios. This will help to understand the associated impacts, including implications for mitigation and adaptation. The proposed workshop aims to give a forum for discussion of state-of-the art developments in and applications of mathematical sciences to tipping-aware risk assessments as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies. It also aims to bring open questions of relevance to the attention of researchers in the mathematical sciences.
Participation
The application is closed now. All applications will then be reviewed by the scientific organisers and the aim is to advise participants of their decisions in a month after the closing date.
There will be a linked three-day training course the week before the workshop: https://www.icms.org.uk/IntroductionClimateTippingPoints
There is a registration fee required to settle for each successful applicant: £250 for both workshop and training; £150 for workshop only.
Potential participants with special needs or those who must fulfil strict visa requirements are encouraged to apply as early as possible and to contact ICMS immediately upon submission. We will review your request on a case by case basis.
Programme
| MONDAY 24 MARCH 2025 | |||
| 09.00 – 09.45 | Registration and Refreshments | ||
| 09.45 – 10.00 | Welcome and Housekeeping | ||
| 10.00 – 10.45 | Chris KRT Jones, George Mason University/UNC- Chapel Hill | Noise induced transitions in a carbon cycle model | |
| 10.45 – 11.15 | Refreshments | ||
| 11.15 – 12.00 | Gabriele Hegerl, University of Edinburgh | The link between extreme events and tipping points | |
| 12.00 – 12.20 | Iacopo P. Longo, Imperial College London | Nonautonomous differential equations in the presence of bounded noise | |
| 12.20 – 13.30 | Lunch | ||
| 13.30 – 14.15 | Manuel Santos Gutierrez, Weizmann Institute of Science TBC |
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| 14.15 – 14.35 | Isobel Parry, University of Exeter | An early warning indicator for tipping points in strongly forced systems | |
| 14.35 – 17.30 | Poster session/ welcome reception | ||
| 17.30 – 19.00 | Informal Dinner at ICMS | ||
| TUESDAY 25 MARCH 2025 | |||
| 09.30 – 10.15 | Sebastian Wieczorek, University College Cork | ||
| 10.15 – 10.35 | Katherine Slyman, Boston College | Tipping mechanisms in a carbon cycle model |
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| 10.35 – 11.15 | Refreshments | ||
| 11.15 – 12.00 | Johannes Lohmann, University of Copenhagen | Observables for early-warning signals of tipping points | |
| 12.00 – 12.20 | Tobias Grafke, Warwick Mathematics Institute | Transition path sampling and large deviations for climate tipping points | |
| 12.20 – 13.30 | Lunch | ||
| 13.30 – 14.15 | Swinda Falkena, Utrecht University | Mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 | |
| 14.15 – 14.35 | Ruth Chapman, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen | Quantifying tipping behavior: geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC | |
| 14.35 – 15.00 | Refreshments | ||
| 15.00 – 15.40 | David Stainforth, London School of Economics | Ensemble design to support societal transformation | |
| 15.40 – 16.00 | Sandy Trust, Baillie Gifford | ||
| 16.00 – 16.30 | Panel discussion: Handling climate risk | ||
| 17.30 – 18.30 | Public Lecture: Peter Ditlevsen, University of Copenhagen | A Tipping Point in the Climate: Possible Collapse of the Atlantic Current |
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| Self-organised dinner | |||
| WEDNESDAY 26 MARCH 2025 | |||
| 09.30 – 10.15 | Sergei Petrovskii, University of Leicester | Regime shifts, tipping points and long transients in models of coupled climate-biota dynamics | |
| 10.15 – 10.35 | Chris Budd, University of Bath | Dynamic tipping near resonance in the Stommel model of the MAOC | |
| 10.35 – 11.15 | Refreshments | ||
| 11.15 – 12.00 | Nico Wunderling, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | Emulating tipping elements in the Earth system: Towards a comprehensive tipping risk assessment |
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| 12.00 – 12.20 | Andreas Morr, Technical University Munich | Internal noise interference to warnings of tipping points in generic multi-dimensional dynamical system | |
| 12.20 – 13.30 | Packed Lunch | ||
| 13.30 | Social activity and self-organised dinner | ||
| THURSDAY 27 MARCH 2025 | |||
| 09.30 – 10.15 | Paul Ritchie, University of Exeter | Navigating rate-induced tipping and overshoots in the climate system | |
| 10.15 – 10.35 | Emmanuel Fleurentin, George Mason University | Understanding tipping phenomena via the Maslov index | |
| 10.35 – 11.15 | Refreshments | ||
| 11.15 – 12.00 | Beatrice Pelloni, Heriot-Watt University | Optimal transport techniques in modelling of atmospheric flows | |
| 12.00 – 12.20 | Frank Kwasniok, University of Exeter | Data-driven anticipation and prediction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse using non-autonomous spatio-temporal dynamical modelling |
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| 12.20 – 13.30 | Lunch | ||
| 13.30 – 14.15 | Susanne Ditlevsen, University of Copenhagen | Parameter estimation in stochastic models of tipping elements | |
| 14.15 – 14.35 | Hassan Alkhayuon, University College Cork | Heat waves and Zombie fires: rate-induced phase-tipping in fast-slow nonautonomous systems | |
| 14.35 – 15.10 | Refreshments | ||
| 15.10 – 15.30 | Sebastian Bathiany (video), Technical University of Munich |
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| 15.30 – 16.05 | Jean-Francois Mercure (video), University of Exeter | Positive tipping points as effective climate policy tools | |
| 16.05 – 16.25 | Sacha Sinet, Utrecht University | Safe Tipping Point Overshoots in Interacting Systems | |
| Self-organised dinner | |||
| FRIDAY 28 MARCH 2025 | |||
| 09.30 – 10.15 | Nikki Vercauteren, University of Cologne | Stochastic parameterization of turbulence: why and how? | |
| 10.15 – 10.35 | Joseph Clarke, University of Exeter | Spatial Early Warning Signals for Rapidly Forced Systems | |
| 10.35 – 11.15 | Refreshments | ||
| 11.15 – 12.00 | Rachel Kuske, Georgia Tech | Identifying critical scales for tipping in noisy, nearly non-smooth Stommel-type models | |
| 12.00 | Packed Lunch/Depart |