About:

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate of Scotland and North-Western Europe. In recent years, a weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations, suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. A statistical significance analysis of these data-driven estimators suggests that a collapse of the AMOC may be possible even mid-century, under the current scenario of future emissions.

About the Speaker:

Peter Ditlevsen is Professor of a theoretical physicist at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen. His research is in the fields of turbulence, statistical physics, dynamical systems and climate dynamics. His current focus has been on Tipping Points in the Earth system and his work on the risk of an AMOC collapse has been widely reported in the media.