Multi-scale models of zoonotic pathogen emergence risk

Scientific Organisers

Giulia Belluccini, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Stephen Davis, RMIT University
Nick Hengartner, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Grant Lythe, University of Leeds
Carmen Molina-Paris, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Ruy Ribeiro, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Bevelynn Williams, University of Leeds

About:

Emerging pathogens are of great public health concern. Most human endemic or emerging infectious diseases that have led to epidemics or pandemics were caused by pathogens shared with wild or domestic animals. Species-jump events of a novel pathogen from sylvatic animal reservoirs to humans occur with regularity. The questions driving this workshop were: 1) can we predict when the next zoonotic emergence event will take place, so that we can best be prepared, and 2) what are the best interventions to prevent such an event.

The focussed workshop took place Monday 8 to Wednesday 10 July and the second part of the event (Research in Groups) took place on Thursday 11 and Friday 12 July 2024.

Programme

MONDAY 08 JULY 2024
Registration and refreshments
Welcome and housekeeping
Simon Johnstone-Robertson, RMIT University Melbourne (online)	Quantifying the impact of immature tick co-aggregation on tick-borne pathogen spread	Abstract
Stephen Davis, RMIT University Melbourne (online)	Transmission graphs and next-generation matrices for complex tick-borne disease systems	Abstract
Refreshments
Jonty Carruthers, UK Health Security Agency	Modelling telecoms data to understand human movement patterns	Abstract
Y-Ling Chi, UK Health Security Agency	An introduction to health economics and perspectives for understanding its contributions to pathogen emergence risk	Abstract
Lunch
Samantha Lycett, Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh	Pathogen phylodynamics, phylogeography and viral fitness in multi-host and multi-strain systems	Abstract
Olivier Restif, University of Cambridge	Modelling bat-virus dynamics for spillover prediction
Refreshments
Holly Gaff, Old Dominion University	Understanding ticks and tick-borne diseases through agent-based modelling	Abstract
Konstantin Blyuss, University of Sussex	Modelling the interactions between pathogens and the immune system	Abstract

Welcome reception, hosted at EFI
TUESDAY 09 JULY 2024
John Barr, University of Leeds
Catherine Beauchemin, RIKEN	Key challenges in predicting virus reassortment in vitro and a few other things	Abstract
Refreshments
Maria Diuk-Wasser, Columbia University	Socio-ecological drivers for emergence and opportunities for control of tick-borne diseases in North America	Abstract
Ben Adams, University of Bath	Mathematical models for the community ecology of tick-borne microbes	Abstract
Lunch
Zati Vatansever & Baris Yildiz, Kafkas University	CCHFV vector ecology	Abstract
Giulia Belluccini, Los Alamos National Laboratory	Co-feeding, co-infection, co-transmission dynamics of tick-borne viruses	Abstract
Refreshments
Bevelynn Williams, University of Leeds	Multi-scale modelling of inhalational anthrax	Abstract
Ruy Ribeiro, Los Alamos National Laboratory	A discussion on estimation of effective reproduction number for an emerging infection	Abstract
Grant Lythe, University of Leeds	Bursting and budding	GRANT LYTHE.pdf
Workshop Dinner, hosted at Blonde Restaurant	75 St. Leonard’s Street, Edinburgh EH8 7QR
WEDNESDAY 10 JULY 2024
Francisco Ruiz-Fons, Spanish Scientific Research Council - Spanish Game & Wildlife Research Institute	Pathogen surveillance in wild vertebrates as a basis for risk modelling of emerging vector-borne diseases	Abstract
Xander O’Neill & Andy White, Heriot-Watt University	Mathematical models of tick-borne infection: the impact of host density and tick demography	Abstract
Refreshments
Carmen Molina-Paris, Los Alamos National Laboratory	Tick-borne segmented RNA viruses: mathematical challenges and opportunities	Abstract
Nick Hengartner & Carmen Molina-Paris, Los Alamos National Laboratory	Discussion and concluding remarks
Lunch and end of workshop