Introduction to The Mathematics of Climate Tipping Points and their Impacts

Scientific Organisers

Peter Ashwin , University of Exeter
Niklas Boers , Technische Universität München
Anna von der Heydt , Utrecht University
Valerio Lucarini , University of Leicester

About:

This will offer a number of mini-courses given by experts in mathematical science topics of relevance. This is an introduction to the workshop which will take place at ICMS the following week, 24 - 28 March 2025 https://www.icms.org.uk/ClimateTippingPoints

This aim is that this will be accessible to interested non-experts of all career stages, especially early career researchers such as PhD students, postdocs. We plan to cover topics such as:

• Nonlinear dynamics modelling in climate systems

• Statistical methods for detecting and forecasting tipping points

• Response theory

Participation

The application is closed now. All applications will then be reviewed by the scientific organisers and the aim is to advise participants of their decisions in a month after the closing date.

Please note, we will prioritise applicants to the training course who are intending to join the workshop as well. There will be a linked five-day workshop the week after this training course: The Mathematics of Climate Tipping Points and their Impacts | ICMS - International Centre for Mathematical Sciences

There is a registration fee required to settle for each successful applicant: £250 for both workshop and training; £150 for workshop only.

Potential participants with special needs or those who must fulfil strict visa requirements are encouraged to apply as early as possible and to contact ICMS immediately upon submission.We will review your request on a case by case basis.

Resources

Programme

WEDNESDAY 19 MARCH 2025
Registration and Refreshments
Welcome and Housekeeping
Lecture: Niklas Boers (video), Technical University of Munich	Introduction to Earth system tipping points	Abstract
Refreshments
Lecture: Susanne Ditlevsen, University of Copenhagen	Parameter estimation in stochastic models of tipping elements	Abstract
Lunch
Lecture: David Stainforth, London School of Economics	Climate prediction: what is it and what is achievable?	Abstract
Lecture: Peter Ashwin, University of Exeter	Introduction to nonautonomous systems	Abstract
Refreshments
Short presentations by participants
Self-organised dinner
THURSDAY 20 MARCH 2025
Project Introduction
Refreshments
Lecture: Susanne Ditlevsen, University of Copenhagen	Parameter estimation in stochastic models of tipping elements	Abstract
Lunch
Lecture: Francesco Ragone, University of Leicester	Analysis and simulation of extreme events and rare transitions in the climate system	Abstract
Refreshments
Project work
Q&A/ panel discussion
Self-organised dinner
FRIDAY 21 MARCH 2025
Lecture: Francesco Ragone, University of Leicester	Response, climate variability and climate change	Abstract
Refreshments
Project work
Lunch
Project work
Refreshments
Project work/ presentations
Self-organised dinner